ARMY RECRUITING IN A CHANGING ENVIRONMENT

Army recruiting is sensitive to fluctuations in labor market conditions. Declines in unemployment over the past several years have led to decreases in the number and quality of enlistments. The Army has several discretionary policy tools that it can use to reduce cyclical variations in recruiting. However, budget constraints and other external requirements often limit the flexibility of these tools. More recently, the recruiting outlook turned favorable for the Army, primarily due to planned reductions in end strength. These reductions imply a 20 to 30 percent drop in total enlistment requirements over the next several years compared with 1989 levels. The danger is that dramatic budget cuts will impair the manpower quality goals of recruiting. Recruiting cuts alone should not be the only means of meeting end-strength reductions to 1995.     

Reinforcement Learning and Savings Behavior

We show that individual investors over‐extrapolate from their personal experience when making savings decisions. Investors who experience particularly rewarding outcomes from 401(k) saving—a high average and/or low variance return—increase their 401(k) savings rate more than investors who have less rewarding experiences. This finding is not driven by aggregate time‐series shocks, income effects, rational learning about investing skill, investor fixed effects, or time‐varying investor‐level heterogeneity that is correlated with portfolio allocations to stock, bond, and cash asset classes. We discuss implications for the equity premium puzzle and interventions aimed at improving household financial outcomes.     

DEMOCRACY AND GLOBALIZATION

The relationship between democracy and globalization has been a subject of both scholarly and policy debate. Some argue that the two go hand in hand – that unrestricted international transactions encourage political accountability and transparency and that politically free societies are least likely to restrict the mobility of goods and services. But others argue that democracies, in which special interests that suffer from foreign competition have voice, are more likely to have closed markets, and vice versa. Our analysis differs from its predecessors in three ways. We seek to uncover general patterns by considering as long a period as possible and all countries with the relevant data. We consider multiple dimensions of globalization, analyzing both trade liberalization and capital account liberalization. And we estimate these relationships using an instrumental variables strategy that allows us to confront the issue of simultaneity. Our findings support the existence of positive relationships between democracy and globalization.     

An Engel Curve Analysis of Household Expenditure in New Zealand*

In this paper we estimate systems of Engel curves for expenditure on eight commodity groups by New Zealand households. Six model specifications are considered, and the preferred results are based on the Almost Ideal Demand System. The estimated expenditure elasticities and marginal budget shares are quite insensitive, at the sample mean, to the choice of functional form. The results are compared with those from other Australasian, British and American studies.     

In Defense of Usury Laws

Usury law is often criticized by economists for curtailing lending and thus creating deadweight costs. This paper shows that if moral hazard leads to credit rationing, a just-binding usury law creates a deadweight gain.  This property also holds in most market-clearing equilibria. Independent of social insurance benefits, or curbing present-biased preferences, interest rate caps have merit.     

Decision theory analysis of audit discovery sampling*

Abstract. Discovery sampling is a frequently used auditing technique. The objective of discovery sampling is to decide whether to accept or reject an audit population for which acceptance is appropriate only if the occurrence rate of serious errors is very low. This objective is met by auditing a sample and accepting only if the sample is free of serious errors. This paper first develops a Bayesian decision theory approach to the discovery sampling problem. Using this approach the auditor optimizes sampling effort according to a decision model that explicitly includes such factors as risk of failure of accepting too high an error rate, losses from wrong decisions, sampling costs, and prior distribution of the error rate. The form of the loss function used includes both linear and quadratic loss functions as special cases. Methods and formulas applicable to various prior distributions for the error rate are obtained. Detailed results are derived for two state-prior and gamma-prior distributions. A minimax approach that removes the need to elicit a complete prior distribution is then developed. Explicit formulas are obtained for both the admissible sample size range and for the minimax sample size. A comparison of results indicates that the minimax approach is nearly as efficient as approaches that require elicitation of prior problem rate distributions. Further analysis generalizes the methods by showing that for the Bayesian and minimax methods, analytical results can be derived for various forms of loss functions. Résumé. Le sondage de dépistage est une technique fréquemment utilisée en vérification qui a pour objectif de déterminer s'il faut accepter ou rejeter une population pour laquelle l'acceptation n'est appropriée que si la fréquence d'erreurs graves est très faible. L'objectif est réalisé au moyen de la vérification d'un échantillon et de son acceptation seulement si l'échantillon est exempt d'erreurs graves. L'auteur met d'abord au point une méthode inspirée de la théorie bayesienne de la décision, adaptée au problème du sondage de dépistage. En utilisant cette méthode, le vérificateur optimise le travail d'échantillonnage conformément à un modèle de décision qui comprend explicitement des facteurs tels que le risque d'échec ou le risque d'acceptation d'un taux d'erreur trop élevé, les pertes attribuables à de mauvaises décisions, les coûts d'échantillonnage et la distribution a priori du taux d'erreur. Des formes de fonction de perte utilisées, celles linéaires et quadratiques constituent des cas spéciaux. L'auteur obtient des méthodes et des formules applicables aux diverses distributions a priori du taux d'erreur. Il dérive les résultats analytiques pour les distributions a priori binômiale et gamma. L'auteur met ensuite au point une méthode minimax supprimant la nécessité d'obtenir une distribution a priori complète. Il obtient des formules explicites pour la fourchette de tailles d'échantillons admissibles ainsi que pour la taille de l'échantillon minimax. Une comparaison des résultats indique que la méthode minimax est presque aussi efficace que les méthodes qui exigent l'obtention de distributions a priori de taux d'erreurs. Le prolongement de l'analyse permet de généraliser les méthodes; il démontre en effet que pour les méthodes bayesienne aussi bien que minimax, les résultats analytiques peuvent être dérivés pour diverses formes de fonctions de perte.     

The MTFS or the EMS: Which Way for Credible Monetary Policy?

Since the latter part of 1988, the primary policy objective has been to head off a rise to double digit inflation. To this end, interest rates have been raised from 7112 per cent to 14per cent, while the public sector is running a large fiscal surplus. Despite this apparently very tight policy stance, policy is deficient in a crucial respect: it lacks credibility. The all too public divisions within government have weakened the efficacy of monetary policy, especially in financial markets. The ongoing uncertainty over who is in charge of the conduct of policy - No. 10 or No. 11 - further undermines confidence. The most urgent priority must be to reassert clear priorities and guidelines. In this Viewpoint, we consider how best to restore the credibility of monetary policy. There are two main possibilities: first, to reassert the Medium Term Financial Strategy (MTFS) in an appropriate form; or to join the (Exchange Rate Mechanism of the) European Monetary System (EMS). We argue that it will be very hard to derive credibility benefits from a reassertion of the MTFS: because of the inflation record of the past decade and the twists and turns of past versions of the MTFS, a mere restatement will not resolve the uncertainties that result from known differences within the government. In particular, any restatement will rely on discretion and judgement in its implementation and this will weaken its beneficial effects on expectations. Instead we argue that entry into the EMS offers a tougher and more credible commitment for monetary policy. The Chancellor has been pushed to rule out UK entry until the second half of 1990 at the earliest, but the government should make a virtue of this by announcing a firm dale for entry next year. In the interim, it should encourage a debate about the appropriate rate for entry, a debate which will increasingly guide the foreign exchange market. The government should make it clear that in choosing this rate it will do so with the commitment to low inflation very much in mind, favouring a high exchange rate. Once in the EMS, the government should rule out the possibility of devaluing the pound in an EMS realignment. This provides a firm non- discretionary anchor for both monetary policy and inflation expectations. With this commitment, the principal gain from EMS entry will be establishing a regime of low inflation for the next decade: in this, choice of the exchange rate will be less crucial than the fact of entry.